President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has reclaimed its position as Kenya’s most popular political party, overtaking the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which has suffered a sharp decline in support following internal divisions.
At the same time, the newly registered Linda Mwananchi Movement has emerged as the country’s second most popular political outfit, attracting 17 per cent support in a new nationwide opinion poll by TIFA Research.
The findings show UDA commanding 25 per cent support, followed by Linda Mwananchi at 17 per cent and ODM at 10 per cent.
The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), associated with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, came fourth with 9 per cent, followed by Wiper Patriotic Front at 5 per cent and Jubilee at 4 per cent.
The Democratic Party (DP) attracted 1 per cent, while 26 per cent of respondents said they did not identify with any political party. Another 2 per cent did not respond.
The results are contained in TIFA Research’s report titled Kenya’s 2027 Electoral Landscape: Political Alignment and the Evolving Presidential Contest, released on Thursday, November 12, 2026.
The survey was conducted between October 26 and November 5, 2026, through face-to-face household interviews with 2,036 randomly selected Kenyan adults across all 47 counties.
The latest findings reveal a major shift in political party popularity since TIFA’s June 2026 survey, when ODM was ranked as the country’s most popular political party.
In June, ODM commanded 20 per cent support, ahead of UDA, which had 17 per cent. However, the latest survey places UDA at 25 per cent, representing an eight-percentage-point increase, while ODM has dropped by half to 10 per cent.
Linda Mwananchi, which was not separately reflected in the earlier party rankings, has entered the latest survey with 17 per cent support, taking second position nationally.
TIFA described the changes as a significant development in the country’s political landscape, stating that “UDA has regained its leading position as the country’s most popular political party (25%), with Linda Mwananchi coming from ‘nowhere’ to assume second position (17%).”
The research organisation further observed that the new movement had clearly taken a significant number of supporters from ODM, whose rating had fallen by half since June.
In its analysis of the changes, TIFA stated that the most notable development was “the entrance of Linda Mwananchi (newly registered, at 17%).”
The organisation also noted that DCP had continued to lose support, falling from 16 per cent in May 2026 to 9 per cent in November.
Jubilee experienced a similar decline, dropping from 10 per cent in May to 4 per cent in the latest survey.
The survey’s historical comparison also showed that UDA’s support had remained relatively stable at around 17 per cent between August 2025 and June 2026 before rising to 25 per cent in November.
ODM, meanwhile, had recorded 13 per cent in August 2025, 18 per cent in November 2025, 18 per cent in May 2026 and 20 per cent in June before falling to 10 per cent.
The figures pointed to a sharp reversal in the political party rankings within a period of about four months.
TIFA attributed the dramatic changes in party support largely to the fallout within ODM between the faction associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and the group led by Oburu Odinga, who took over as party chairman following the death of his brother, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
The disagreements, which centred partly on the party’s relationship with President Ruto’s administration under the Broad-Based Government arrangement, eventually led to the emergence of the Linda Mwananchi Movement.
According to TIFA, tensions between the two groups were already evident during its June survey. However, the breakaway faction managed to register its own political party shortly before the latest survey’s fieldwork began.
The organisation explained that the group had initially operated under the umbrella of The Equitable Party (TEP) before registering the Linda Mwananchi Movement.
The poll also revealed significant regional differences in political party support, with UDA maintaining strong backing in Northern and Central Rift while Linda Mwananchi performed particularly well in Western and Nairobi.
UDA recorded its highest support in Northern, where it attracted 60 per cent, followed by Central Rift at 56 per cent.
The party received 24 per cent in Coast, 22 per cent in Western, 20 per cent in Lower Eastern and South Rift, 13 per cent in Nyanza, 10 per cent in Mt Kenya and 8 per cent in Nairobi.
Linda Mwananchi, meanwhile, recorded its strongest support in Western at 40 per cent.
The movement attracted 26 per cent in Nairobi, 18 per cent in Nyanza, 16 per cent in Coast, 15 per cent in Mt Kenya, 11 per cent in South Rift, 9 per cent in Central Rift and 6 per cent in Northern.
Its lowest support was recorded in Lower Eastern at 5 per cent.
ODM maintained its strongest regional support in Nyanza, where it attracted 33 per cent.
The party received 15 per cent in South Rift, 14 per cent in Coast, 10 per cent in Northern and Western, 9 per cent in Nairobi, 3 per cent in Central Rift and 2 per cent in both Mt Kenya and Lower Eastern.
DCP, on the other hand, recorded its strongest support in Mt Kenya at 27 per cent, followed by Nairobi at 11 per cent and South Rift at 14 per cent.
The party received 5 per cent in Central Rift, 3 per cent in Coast and 1 per cent in Nyanza, while no support was recorded in Northern, Lower Eastern and Western.
Wiper dominated its traditional Lower Eastern base, attracting 50 per cent support in the region. Its support stood at 7 per cent in Nairobi, 3 per cent in South Rift, 2 per cent in Coast and 1 per cent in Central Rift, Mt Kenya and Northern.
